By: Kasper Danielsen
On the 26th of December 2024, much of the world was surprised to see pictures of a new Chinese aircraft flying over Chengdu, China. The aircraft, speculatively named Chengdu J-36, was a sleek tailless flying wing with three engines and a side-by-side cockpit. But while some were worried about the possibility that the West had fallen behind, the truth is more complicated. From US efforts to joint programs fostering transnational collaboration, the race to put a sixth-generation fighter jet in the air is well on its way, even if the public is mostly kept in the dark. Let’s shed some light on the current programs involved.
A new era
Sixth-generation aircraft are still to be fully disclosed to the public, but the current understanding of the programs racing to produce their first airframes is that the capabilities of the new aircraft are to improve significantly. Sixth-gen fighters are expected to be stealthier than ever, faster than ever, longer-ranged, and most significantly, able to coordinate and control a fleet of autonomous systems, with what the US calls the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) concept. Here, a single manned fighter would command a flight of unmanned aircraft as decoys, fighters, reconnaissance or electronic warfare. The concept is based, in part, on the fact that the expected cost per airframe is to be very high, which makes risking losses in combat prohibitively expensive. To offset this, cheaper, unmanned platforms would augment capabilities, and allow air forces to procure less manned airframes. So who is in the running?
There are currently six programs hoping to take part in the race for sixth-gen, with the US accounting for two on its own. China has tested several models, though it is unclear if these models are of different projects or different competitors for the same project. Russia has been developing its Mikoyan PAK DP since the mid 2010s, while some European countries have been cooperating on their programs. Britain and Italy have worked with Japan on their GCAP program, while France and Germany have tried to work together on their FCAS concept.
The US: NGAD and FA/XX
The United States has always put an emphasis on airpower, and has the military industrial capacity to back it up. The F-15 is one of the most successful combat aircraft of all time, while the F-22 was the first fifth-gen fighter jet ever. The expectation is then that the US would be the frontrunner in this race. The US is actually the first to announce its acquisition of a sixth-gen fighter, with President Trump announcing the production of Boeing’s F-47 in 2025. The F-47 was the result of the US Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. The NGAD program started in 2014 to design a replacement for the F-22 Raptor, with a prototype flying as early as 2020, and two more prototypes flying by 2023. The US is expected to buy 200 F-47s in the 2030s, and more than 1000s CCAs. However, the US Navy also wants to expand its capabilities.
Running an ageing fleet of F-18s, the US Navy seeks to produce its own sixth-gen, carrier-capable fighters. Called the FA/XX program, it aims at allowing the Navy to also field sixth-gen fighters capable of working with the most important assets of US power projection, the carrier fleet. However, in July 2025, it was revealed that in the 2026 fiscal year, the FA/XX program would receive $76 million, while the F-47 program would receive $3.4 billion. This hampers the efforts of the FA/XX program to the point of irrelevance and makes the work of the Navy harder. This is seen as counterproductive by some analysts who believe that a confrontation between China and the US is likely, where the US would rely on its carrier fleet and the Air Force would only have a limited impact. As it stands, the US might be able to field a sixth-gen platform quickly, but it might be the wrong one.
A Pacific Rivalry
China has proven to be an impressive manufacturing power, and its ability to develop and field advanced technology rivals the West. Chinese buildup of naval forces has been rapid and comprehensive, with the new Type 055 destroyer considered to be one of the best in the world. As for aviation, China has flown both the J-20 and J-35 stealth fighters, being the only nation other than the US able to deploy fifth-gen fighters at scale. China’s rise from a developing economy to a dominant military force in the region has been a rapid and contentious topic, but the reality is that China is a competitor on par with the US. While China has announced the program to build sixth-generation fighters, it has not announced any details about the designs, or even names. The names used here are speculative, and added by analysts. What we do know is that the Chengdu Aircraft Cooperation (CAC) and the Shenyang Aircraft Cooperation (SAC) have produced prototypes to a Chinese sixth-gen program. This has been the Chengdu J-36 and the Shenyang J-50, respectively. Available data is based on visual data from sightings, as no specifications or other information have been provided. The J-50 is a small, somewhat “traditional” design for a sixth-gen aircraft, with a single flying wing design. It has been seen as an early iteration of the sixth-gen program, as it only started in 2018. However, the more interesting prototype is the J-36.
The J-36 is like nothing we have seen before. It has three engines, a large frame, and twin-bogey rear landing gear. This indicates heavy weight and a large mass for internal fuel and range. Some have made the argument that the J-36 is supposed to be part of the J/H-XX program, a suspected program for a Chinese strike aircraft. As such, the J-36 might have been part of the J/H-XX program for some time, and then later tweaked to a more traditional fighter role. There are also questions about its internal bays, and what the size would mean for strike capabilities. Large bays would allow for extended range munitions and stand-off capabilities. This would indicate a tanker or AWACS (Airborne warning and Control system) killer, something most Western nations, including the US, lack. The lack of an under-nose electro-optical targeting sensor further reinforces the belief that this is not a “traditional” bomber.
The runner ups
There are three other programs currently taking part in the race for sixth-gen: the British-Italian-Japanese GCAP, the French-German FCAS, and the Russian Mikoyan PAK DP. GCAP, also known as the Tempest program, is a joint effort between British, Italian and Japanese corporations to produce a new sixth-gen fighter. The program is aiming to combine the expertise of British engine manufacture with Italian avionics and Japanese manufacturing capability. There are plans to have a flying demonstrator in 2027, an ambitious timeline for a program that needs to coordinate across continents, languages, and timezones. The program has approximately 9000 people working on the program, and GCAP hopes to replace Typhoons in service in the UK and Italy, and F-2s in Japan. While there has been some progress in this program, there are worries about such a big project being coordinated across nations, as the past two bilateral programs to develop a new Main Battle Tank (MBT) both failed.
FCAS, the French and German effort to build their own sixth-gen fighter, is reportedly suffering. France still fields carriers, and wants the fighter to be carrier-capable, adding weight and complexity. Some in Europe are already calling the program dead.
The Russian Mikoyan PAK DP program is the least mature of the sixth-gen programs. Intended to replace the MiG-31 interceptor, the design is reportedly finalized, but as it is supposed to build on the MiG-31 design, there are doubts about its groundbreaking evolution.
What’s next
The race to fill the air with new, advanced fighters is already underway, with multiple programs running. The current big competitors, China and the US, have already shown their promise, having flown technology demonstrators. Europe has two programs running, though both are facing challenges. But some sensational reporting on public flights of prototypes hide the reality of these expensive, transformative, and ambitious programs. Some programs might even be doomed already, with international programs proving, yet again, to be rife with competition and disagreements. Whether we will see China disrupting US air dominance or Europe joining the production of cutting edge aircraft is still too early to tell. What we can say for sure is that the weapons of the future, that will no doubt be seen in thousands of headlines and pictures in the next 50 years, are well on their way.
Edited by: Karolína Hajná and Luca Vousten
Image Source: Pixabay