By: Tom Cannon
Up until the first votes of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections were tallied, most observers of U.S. politics thought the results would reflect the deep divisions in Americans priorities for the country and leadership. Called a coin toss by some, it came as a great surprise to many that Donald Trump, the 45th President, would become the country’s 47th by a margin that was anything but close. Leading up to the election, Trump had repeatedly cancelled interviews, saw crowds of supporters leaving mid-rally, and even spent one of his last rallies denying any questions – instead swaying to some of his favourite songs for over 30 minutes. Harris’ campaign was compact, for sure, given the short time she had to make her case. Yet polls across the country indicated that her success and popularity was hardly hampered by the short time she had to prepare her campaign and attract voters. Democrats are still figuring out what exactly went wrong. What is clear, however, is that for all the popularity she did attract, she was not able to mobilise enough voters to the ballots. Be that as it may, the reality that Americans, and the international community at large, will have to face is four years of Trump at the head of the most powerful economy of the world. Domestically, Trump is well positioned with a strong legislative and judiciary backing, which will assist him greatly in implementing his MAGA inspired conservative policies. Abroad, President-elect Trump has already made it clear that his ‘America First’ policy will translate into U.S. allies needing to rethink their approach to global dynamics, from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to changing geopolitical tides in Asia. Together, this election coverage will explore these domestic and international implications to try and examine the four years ahead.
Trump’s Legislative and Judiciary Power Base: All the Conservative Agenda Needs
As it stands Trump has broad legislative and judiciary backing for his upcoming presidency. At the time of writing, November 10th, the Senate is firmly under Republican control, as the Senate elections, which run concurrently with the presidential race, brought a Republican majority to 53 seats – past the 51 needed for a simple majority. As for the House of Representatives, the Republicans are five seats away from gaining a majority there too, out of the 218 seats required. The Democrats would need 16. Perhaps most importantly, though, is the judiciary foundation Trump has set himself during his last presidency. Understood by many to be a particularly pertinent aspect of his last presidential legacy, the plethora of federal judges he appointed – including three Supreme Court Justices – will certainly play a large part in his presidential efforts to come. For instance, the Supreme Court enshrined the principle of ‘presumptive’ immunity for presidents earlier this year, providing incumbents with immunity from criminal prosecution “within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility”. While it remains to be seen what this would mean practically, this decision heavily weighs in favour of Trump in face of his various indictments and charges, and more generally reflects that his appointments certainly paid off – not least judging by the clearly partisan division of the individual judges’ decisions. Together, the legislative and judiciary branches of government thus far align with President-elect Trump, and will likely provide him with the support he will need in the years to come.
One of the best indicators for Trump’s domestic plans will be the staffing of his administration. At the time of writing this article, only his Chief of Staff is known, namely Susie Wiles. She is perhaps best known for her efforts in Trump’s past campaigns and those of Florida governor Ron DeSantis, although she had also served as President Ronald Reagan’s scheduler and within his Labour Department. As for the rest of Trump’s cabinet, it largely remains up in the air who will fill the positions of Attorney General, Homeland Security, Secretary of State and so on. What is clear, however, is that Trump’s presidency will likely be distinctly conservative along the lines of his past right-wing rhetoric and anti-‘woke’ perceptions. With names such as Stephen Miller, who orchestrated the separation of migrant families along the southern border in 2018, being floated as top contenders for some of the most senior positions in Trump’s administration, there are good indications for what kind of politics could be expected over the next few years. Similarly, one could also look at the most important think-tanks thought by many to be the driving force behind current conservative policies in the U.S. Perhaps best known here is the American Heritage Foundation, notorious for their ‘Project 2025’ policy manifesto. The specificities of this policy plan are striking. It calls for severe restrictions on reproductive rights and women’s healthcare, dismantling of a number of federal agencies and thousands of federal jobs, as well as immensely upping deportation and enabling warrantless detention measures. Although not to be taken as synonymous with Trump’s plans, this alone gives a good indication for the types of policy that could be discussed on the floor of Congress under his presidency.
What the World Can Expect under a renewed America First Foreign Policy
Besides the domestic realities Americans will have to face under another Trump term, for observers and analysts of international security, there is invariably some concern with a President-elect like Trump. For one, Trump’s position on NATO remains worryingly conditional. During a rally early this year, he even declared that the U.S. would not step up to its duties to protect its allies against Russian aggression should they not have fulfilled their 2 percent of GDP defence investment pledge: “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want”. Moreover, Trump has made it one of his primary goals once in office is to strike a deal with Russia and end the war within 24 hours of entering the White House. While that seems highly unlikely, some analysts indicate that European and NATO leaders worry that this would entail appeasing Russia one way or another. And for Ukrainians, a Trump presidency will likely mean a much harder time lobbying for the financial and military support needed to continue protecting their sovereignty, should the war indeed continue under his presidency. Since the election has been called in his favour, Trump has already begun to make his first moves in this domain, which is unusual for a president-elect. More unusual still is his apparent involvement of billionaire Elon Musk in his first foreign policy steps, as the two held a call with Ukrainian president Zelenskyy just four days after the election. While the exact nature of the call is still unclear, it does indicate the kind of presidency we can continue to expect from Trump; one that nurtures his unpredictability and willingness to break away from the status quo.
For all his rhetoric to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is less obvious that Trump will carry this sentiment over to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Although he has implied his intent of ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, there is no real indication how exactly his policies would differ from those of the current administration. If anything, there are more reasons to worry that the situation in the region will escalate under his presidency. Trump has historically followed an aggressive foreign policy towards Iran, considered the main antagonist by Israel and the U.S., and has already set course towards doing so again. As much as his support for ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon may effectively translate into peace in those conflicts, it remains doubtful that this quest for peace extends to Iran – should Trump choose to renew his antagonistic foreign policy stance.
One of the most anticipated aspects of Trump’s upcoming presidency is his approach to U.S. rival, China. Trump prides himself on the hawkish and confrontational stance he took against the country during his first presidency. His trade war against the country is still being accounted for by economists, and its effects are likely still palpable for everyone involved – including Americans themselves. For his upcoming term as president, Trump has already variously announced that he would return to using tariffs aggressively against any and all countries wanting to export their goods to the U.S., with a general 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods. While economists are still trying to figure out what that would mean for both the U.S. and global economy, this is naturally a disruptive stance to the current status quo.
Perhaps more worrying still is Trump’s stance towards Taiwan. As China looms over the island and has made its intentions of annexation clear over the years, Trump has kept uncertainty as his main bargaining chip for any potential movement of aggression from China. While it may indeed be a bargaining chip on his end, this uncertainty does little to quell concerns of a potential escalation for everyone else. China’s military capacity has grown rapidly over the last few years, and the bulk of its training involved simulations of invading the island. U.S. Army scholars consider any real attempt to do so by China to be one of the most likely reasons the two superpowers could go to war. David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank, estimates that any sense of duty towards Taiwan under Trump hinges on his calculations of cost-benefit of the relationship, regardless of his positions on China. In any case, unlike President Biden, Trump has so far refrained from committing himself to protecting Taiwan should the occasion arise. It would likely only be at such a critical point that his commitments would become clear.
However, it is crucial to note that many of the 75 million individuals who voted for Trump feel as if the world will be safer under his leadership. Many supporters point to the alleged absence of any large U.S. involvement in conflicts, an admittedly controversial claim. He also gained support for the withdrawal of troops from Syria and agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan, and regardless of how pronounced his hawkish stance towards China was, many analysts consider it one of his most significant foreign policy successes. Ultimately, Trump’s inconsistent, and perhaps even erratic approach to foreign policy leaves the future of our nations up in the air. And whether or not he can replicate his successes remains to be seen. What could provide some comfort, though, is that he has already set the precedent for leaders across the world as to what kind of a president they can expect, which could help them navigate his unpredictable nature.
Uncertainty Ahead
It is this uncertainty that characterises this U.S. election cycle and outcome; it was this feature that marked Trump’s last presidency, too. Together, from his approach to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, to the tensions with China, such uncertainty does little to reassure the international community at large of security, stability, and peace under Trump.
As for his politics at home, the same will likely hold true. How the current president, Joe Biden, will respond to Trump’s election success will be crucial for those set to be affected by the arguably harsh conservative policies Trump is expected to pursue. Harris, although not elected to be president, will have to prove her commitment to her cause as incumbent vice-president in the time she has left. Whatever the current Democratic leadership chooses to do, time is running out.
Interested?
Interested in exploring these dilemmas more? Join us on Wednesday, December 11, 2024, at The Humanity Hub, The Hague, for “The Erosion of Facts in U.S. Politics: Implications for Foreign Policy and International Cooperation.” With the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election as a focal point, we’ll explore how post-truthism influences domestic and foreign policy. Do facts still matter? How do these developments affect global alliances and parallels with Europe? Discuss the rationality of foreign versus domestic politics and their far-reaching consequences.
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