From Coup to Crisis: Europe’s Challenge in the Shifting Sahel Landscape
On the evening of 29 January, at Amsterdam’s de Balie, a leading cultural venue in the Netherlands, a
sold-out audience converged to dissect the shifting geopolitical terrain of the Sahel. The event was
also live-streamed via de Balie TV and is accessible on demand via YouTube. Under the banner
“Russia and the EU in the Sahel: Race for Influence,” experts and journalists gathered to discuss the
region’s structural instability as well as local and international implications.
Zara Toksöz of de Balie and Leon Braun, representing the JASON Institute, set the stage by
emphasising the Sahel’s transformation. Eleven coup attempts in four years, the rise of jihadist
movements, and Russia’s assertive manoeuvres have upended a longstanding order, pushing out
European and, most notably, French troops.
The initial panel, featuring journalist Bram Vermeulen, writer Daaf Borren, and Doctors Without
Borders’ emergency manager Ozan Agbas, delved into the “situation on the ground.” Their discussion
painted a picture of tumultuous local realities: military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have
destabilised governance. Agbas highlighted how the growing anti-European sentiments provide
enormous challenges for aid organisationss. Aid workers of European ethnicity can no longer be
deployed to some regions in the Sahel due to the high risk of being attacked.
An interesting intermezzo was delivered by Célia D’Almeida, the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty
Democracy’s Country Director for Mali, who joined via video stream from Bamako, the capital of
Mali. She highlighted that while democratic values may be universal, their manifestations are
profoundly contextual. In authoritarian regimes, even private conversations can serve as quiet bastions
of freedom and promote long-term democratisation shifts.
The subsequent panel, featuring researcher Grace Ellis alongside Bram Vermeulen and Daaf Borren,
pivoted to Europe’s strategic calculus. A recurring theme was the need for Europe to recalibrate its
approach: European policymakers must confront the challenge of justifying long-term aid
expenditures amid pressures for short-term returns rather than merely using the Sahel for migration
control and anti-jihadist operations. Bram argued that Europe’s engagement in the region is driven
primarily by self-interest. In contrast, Grace articulated a more nuanced vision, voicing her belief that
many officials genuinely seek to improve local conditions.
Other discussions explored the power of language in framing conflict actors. Is one better described as
a “farmer with a gun” or a “terrorist”? Such nuances shape policy responses and public perception.
Moreover, the conversation touched on the consequences of the growing power of non-Western
players in the region. It noted that while Russia’s support may come with fewer strings like pressure
for democratic reform attached, its focus on military support risks further entrenching instability and
violent conflict. At the same time, Europe loses influence in a region of vital geopolitical importance.
Russia’s favourable perception among the local population in the Sahel, despite its aggressive
expansionist policies in Ukraine, demonstrates that the immediate, human-scale struggles that define
life in the region obscure geopolitical moral considerations.
In sum, all speakers agreed: Europe must adopt a locally attuned, long-term strategy in the Sahel that
transcends the allure of quick fixes in favour of addressing deep-rooted structural challenges.
